Economic Boom instead of Bust
Russia’s Upturn under the Microscope
Deutsche Fassung
Abstract
Like phoenix from the ashes, Russia’s economy has risen from the severe crisis brought on by transformation. Fantasies of economic great power status are already taking shape. But the upturn is based primarily on the high cost of energy around the world. This carries with it the risk of Russia being infected by the “Dutch disease”. Russia’s economy is heavily reliant on exports of oil, gas and raw materials. State dominated monopolisation is increasing. This promotes corruption and reduces opportunities for economic growth. Investment is too low; the middle class is not developing quickly enough. Future risks such as insufficient education and research capacities alongside a high percentage of old people are not taken seriously enough. The first indications of the reforms needed to remedy these weaknesses can be made out, however.
(Osteuropa 5/2006, pp. 19–38)