Sultan, Clan and Patronage
The Dilemmas Facing Central Asia’s Regimes
Andreas Heinemann-Grüder, Holger Haberstock
Deutsche Fassung
Abstract
The colour revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia fed expectations expectations of democ-ratisation in Central Asia. This, however, did not happen. The systems of rule there are considered semi-authoritarian or sultanic. Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan demonstrate the dilemmas facing these regimes. They hardly produce stability and legiti-macy, and for that reason, they all fear a change of regime by means of elections or succession crisis. The security apparatus plays a key role. In Central Asia, a mixture of the Putin and Chinese models is taking shape as the most probable scenario.
(Osteuropa 8-9/2007, pp. 121–138)