Cover Osteuropa 2/2008

In Osteuropa 2/2008

Economic Power Russia
Oil, Economic Upturn, and Stability

Roland Götz

Deutsche Fassung


Russia’s economy has been booming for several years. In 2008, its gross domestic product ought to be larger than that of Great Britain. In 2016, Russia may have overtaken Germany and become the world’s fifth largest economic power after the United States, China, Japan, and India. The sheer size of its GDP, however, is not a sufficient indicator of the productivity of its national economy. Russia’s growth is highly dependent on the development of the oil price. The massive export of resources is leading to an appreciation of the rouble. This has the effect of dampening the economy, because it limits export possibilities for industry. The symptoms of the “Dutch disease” and a “resource curse” are making themselves felt in this way. A stabilisation fund created in 2004 is supposed to create a corrective. Whether this will succeed is debatable.

(Osteuropa 2/2008, pp. 21–32)