The Belarus Case
Analyses, Interpretations, Consequences
Joerg Forbrig, Rainer Lindner, David Marples, Arkadij Mošes, Astrid Sahm
Deutsche Fassung
Abstract
Voter fraud, brutal violence against demonstrators, arrests, and repression: There should be no more doubts about the character of the Lukashenka regime. But why this escalation? And how should the European Union react: The “policy of dialog” with Minsk has failed. But the policy of isolation did not bring the desired results. The Belarus expert Astrid Sahm, together with her international colleagues Joerg Forbrig, Rainer Lindner, David Marples, and Arkady Moshes reveal the domestic causes, shed light on the power and powerlessness of the regime, reassess its sources of stability, interpret Russia’s role, scrutinize the potential reactions of the EU, and discuss the deve-lopment scenarios for Belarus.
(Osteuropa 12/2010, pp. 5–22)