Cover Osteuropa 2-3/2011

In Osteuropa 2-3/2011
Teil des Dossiers Arktis

Climate Change in the Arctic
Phenomena and Prognoses

Rüdiger Gerdes

Deutsche Fassung


The surface area covered by Arctic sea ice and Arctic sea ice volume are both receding. This is in part a consequence of the current warm phase of the long-term, natural Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Anthropogenic warming and changed wind systems could accelerate the decrease in Arctic sea ice. But the transition of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation to a cooler phase is also conceivable. As a result, Arctic sea ice could recover. Even a reversal of the warming trend is conceivable. In scientific terms, it remains unclear how long the present warm phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation will last. The decrease in Arctic sea ice will greatly influence atmospheric and oceanic circulatory systems. The expected changes would also affect the climate in Europe.

(Osteuropa 2-3/2011, pp. 47–56)