The Great Uncertainty
The Consequences of the Fracking Boom for the EU and Russia
Deutsche Fassung
Abstract
The shale-gas boom in the United States is accelerating drastic change in global energy markets. But the consequences are not nearly as clear as current scenarios suggest. Nor is it clear that the extraction of unconventional deposits in the United States will be profitable in the long run, nor whether a similar boom can be repeated elsewhere. Russia’s model of a regional, network-based supply of natural gas is under pressure, but could hold its ground. It will do so in particular, if the European Union is not able, as hoped, to fall back on a large global supply of cheap liquid petroleum for the diversification of its energy imports, but instead falls behind vis-à-vis the growth markets in Asia, the direction where energy trading will shift.
(Osteuropa 7/2013, pp. 29–44)