Standstill
Russia’s Economic Growth after the Oil Boom
Deutsche Fassung
Abstract
The economic model to which Russia owed its ability to meet the 1990s transformational crisis and its economic recovery (only briefly interrupted in 2009) has not been working since mid-2014. The oil boom is over; the “engine of growth through rising oil prices” has come to rest. The upcoming 2015 recession could trigger a prolonged depression, for which the Russian state and society are unprepared. Economic growth could regain momentum in the future if there is a successful transition to a diversified economic model that is sustained by more than the export of natural resources. Otherwise, the West will face not only a politically ossified, but also an economically stagnating Russia for many years to come.
(Osteuropa 1-2/2015, pp. 125–145)