On the hook
Russia and Belarus
Deutsche Fassung
Abstract
Since the country became independent, Belarus has been reliant on Russia as an energy supplier and a sales market. The two states also have close political ties, and formally are even a Union State with integrated defence and economic structures. Recently, President Lukashenka attempted to reduce Belarus’ dependence on Russia. The power crisis in Belarus resulting from the brazen falsification of the presidential election in August 2020 has international dimensions. The EU has its own concerns and is not interested in Bela-rus. Lukashenka has been discredited. The outcome of the crisis therefore depends largely on Russia. The Belarusian regime is only able to survive with Moscow’s support, with the Kremlin alone deciding whether Lukashenka will remain at its head, and if so, for how long.
(Osteuropa 10-11/2020, pp. 281–290)