Three Scenarios
Victory, Exhaustion, Regime Collapse
Deutsche Fassung
Abstract
Wars end by a clear military victory, the exhaustion of the warring parties, or the collapse of a regime. A Russian military victory is a distant prospect. Only through weeks or months of terror against the civilian population can it still force Ukraine to surrender. Then, a negotiated peace will become more likely, but it will come at a high price. The scenario of regime collapse in Moscow is not very likely so long as the West continues to support Ukraine only half-heartedly.
(Osteuropa 1-3/2022, pp. 173–177)