Not a Bit of Peace
War and Negotiations
Deutsche Fassung
Abstract
Russia’s war against Ukraine is in its second year. Militarily, Ukraine cannot win the war against Russia. But a Russian victory is also unlikely because the West supports Ukraine. It will come down to negotiations to end this war. The leadership around Putin is not ready for this. It will engage in negotiations only if Ukraine is able to repel Russia’s spring offensive and bring pressure to bear on the attacking forces. After that, an extensive negotiation process will be necessary, during which a ceasefire and its monitoring will have to be determined, as well as the status of occupied Ukrainian territories. As during the CSCE process in the 1970s, this will require staying power, confidence building, negotiations at several levels, and the involvement of indirect warring parties such as the United States, the members of the European Union, Turkey, and China. The aim will be to restore Ukraine’s territorial status quo ante within the framework of a new European security order.
(Osteuropa 11/2022, pp. 23–34)