The Third Year of War
Four Scenarios for 2025
Deutsche Fassung
Abstract
The year of war that has just passed brought a clear realisation: Ukraine will not win the war. Russia has succeeded in turning the war in its favour, above all on the ground. The Ukrainian successes in the air war and on the Black Sea were not decisive. The attack in the Russian region of Kursk remained tactically unsuccessful. It is becoming increasingly clear that the end of the war may well be the result of American-Russian negotiations. The incoming US administration wants to cut military aid to Ukraine, and the remaining allies will not be able to close the gap. A systematic and comprehensive analysis of the third year of the war and the four most likely scenarios illustrate this: Kiev is left with hardly any options.
(Osteuropa 11-12/2024, pp. 173–180)