Unabated Decline
Russia’s Oil Revenues and the Iran War
Deutsche Fassung
Abstract
Since the start of the war in the Persian Gulf at the end of February 2026, Russia has been exporting crude oil and natural gas at higher prices and in larger volumes. However, the decline in export earnings that began following the invasion of Ukraine has not been stemmed. The share of revenue derived from the export of fossil fuels has dropped significantly due to the high costs associated with circumventing sanctions. Additional earnings generated by the conflict in the Gulf are expected to reduce the massive budget deficit projected for 2026. However, military spending has risen so sharply that this gap is far from being covered.
(Osteuropa 1-2/2026, pp. 65–72)