At a Dead End?
The Sanctions Spiral in the EU-Belarusian Conflict
Deutsche Fassung
Abstract
The chances are slim that the EU will pave the way to free and fair new elections in Belarus with the aid of sanctions. Belarusian autocrat Lukašėnka has over 25 years of experience with sanctions. He is prepared to defend his power at all costs and enjoys the Kremlin’s support in defending himself against perceived “colour revolutions” coming from the West. Minsk and Moscow are deliberately creating threats to regional security, in order to impose their agenda on the West. Lukašenka is at risk of becoming Putin’s stooge. The expansion of EU sanctions also affects the Belarusian population. Their attitude toward the sanctions is divided. The EU should try to avoid further escalation and strengthen policy coherence.
(Osteuropa, 10-12/2021, pp. 139–168)