The Long Road to the Sidelines
On the Impact of Western Sanctions on Russia’s Economy
Deutsche Fassung
Abstract
Russia’s national economy seems to have weathered the sanctions well. Foreign exchange earnings are high, inflation is low, and the rouble is strong. But appearances are deceiving. The actual impact of the sanctions is yet to come: Russian companies are cut off from key supply chains. Import substitution, parallel imports, and new trade relations do not promise any fundamental remedy. Russia’s technological backwardness will grow, hidden unemployment and poverty will spread. However, the sanctions will hardly achieve their political end. More and more people in Russia will be dependent on the state, dissatisfaction will not result in an ability to act.
(Osteuropa 4-5/2022, pp. 99–106)